Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
